Different modeling approaches generally conclude that future climate conditions will increase the risk of wildfire across the Great Plains. Annual fire probability, calculated solely with climate data and physical principles, is projected to increase by 20% to 1200% across the region by the end of the century, with the largest increases occuring in Wyoming and western Montana. The incidence of atmospheric conditions that contribute to large and erratic fire behavior, measured by the Haines Index, is also projected to occur more frequently (2 to 11 percent increase) by the end of the century, again with the largest increases in the northern Plains and Wyoming in particular. The limitation for these sorts of projections is that they do not account for changes in land use, fire suppression rates, or vegetation changes.