Hawaii | Adaptation Workbook

Hawaii and the Pacific Islands are described as a separate region in the 2014 National Climate Assessment.

State

Vulnerability Assessment

National Climate Assessment (2018) - Hawaii

Climate Impact Statements

By mid-century, temperatures in Hawai'i are expected to rise by 1-3 degrees F. By late century, under a high emissions scenario, temperatures are expected to rise by 4-5 degrees F.

During the 21st century, changes in average annual precipitation are projected to be slight, with potential increases in the southern part of the region and decreases possible in the northern Pacific.

Climate models generally project that El Nino-like conditions will occur more frequently under climate change in the Pacific region.

Damage from strong storms and sea-level rise may increase in Pacific islands by the end of the century.

Native forests in the Pacific may be vulnerable to climate change, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and high-elevation alpine areas.

Non-native species may amplify climate change impacts for Pacific Island forests.

Systems that are more tolerant of disturbance have less risk of declining on the landscape

Species in fragmented landscapes will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

Systems that are limited to particular environments will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the effects of increasing temperatures.

Impervious cover can exacerbate the effects of increased heavy precipitation events in urban areas.

Hawai'i is prone to severe drought, which is likely to continue and worsen as climate change progresses.

Wildfire risk is expected to increase in Hawai'i.

Future incidence of extreme precipitation is difficult to project for Hawai'i-- but even if precipitation remains about the same, higher temperatures are likely to cause increased soil moisture stress.

Sea surface temperatures and acidity are now the highest in recorded history. Coral bleaching is projected to occur annually by 2045.

Hawaii is home to a wide variety of ecological habitats with more than 1000 native plant species; many are threatened or endangered.

Around 1990, the frequency of Trade Wind Inversions (TWI) increased dramatically. This has led to drier conditions in high elevation ecosystems.

Expected decreases in rainfall during the wet season and marginal increases during the dry season are the main contributing factors to the overall decrease in water balance, which may have serious implications on groundwater availability.

Production potential for agroecosystems in the future, based on 3 different climate models, ranges from no change to decreases of up to 19% by end of century.

Two fungal pathogens, which cause the disease Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD), are leading to widespread loss of ‘ōhi‘a lehua, Hawai'i's most widespread native tree.

Future projections, through 2061, indicate a >30% decrease in carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems.

Changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR) can lead to shifts in stream flow regimes in tropical watersheds, with impacts to aquatic organism habitat quality and downstream water supply.

Warming temperatures and changes in rainfall, now and into the future, are increasing the range of avian malaria to higher elevations, threatening numerous forest bird species.

Low-diversity systems are at greater risk from climate change.

Resource

Third National Climate Assessment - Hawaii and Pacific Islands

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