Greater Chicago Area | Adaptation Workbook

Greater Chicago Area

NIACS Unit

Multi-family residential

Commercial/ Industrial

Non-forested wetland

GeoJson

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Vulnerability Assessment

Chicago Wilderness Region Urban Forest Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis

Vulnerability Assessment Video

Video: Urban forest vulnerability in the Midwest and Northeast

Climate Impact Statements

Mean annual temperature in the Chicago area is projected to increase by 2.3 ° to 8.2 ° F by the end of the 21st century, with temperature increases across all seasons.

Precipitation in the Chicago area is projected to increase in winter and spring over 21st century, but projections for summer and fall precipitation are less clear

Heavy precipitation events in the Chicago area have been increasing and are projected to continue to increase further, which could increase runoff and local flooding from stormwater

Extreme and exceptional droughts in the Chicago area may increase in duration, frequency, and spatial extent compared to the end of the 20th century

Increases in temperature may lead to an increase of 1-2 hardiness zones and 2-4 heat zones in the Chicago area.

Species distribution modeling for native species suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 15 primarily northern species and increase or become newly suitable for 47 species in the Chicago area.

For species for which no model information is available (rare, nonnative, or cultivars), shifts in heat and hardiness zones could have a positive effect on about 23 percent of species that are either present in the Chicago area or considered for planting,

Adaptive capacity of 179 species in the Chicago area was evaluated using scoring systems for planted and natural environments, with invasive species among those with the highest capacity to adapt to a range of stressors.

An analysis of vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in heat and hardiness zones, and adaptive capacity showed that 15 percent of the trees currently present in the Chicago region have either moderate-high or high vulnerability to climate

Many invasive species, insect pests, and pathogens will increase or become more damaging in the Chicago area by the end of the century.

The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the effects of increasing temperatures.

Impervious cover can exacerbate the effects of increased heavy precipitation events in urban areas.

Forest composition will change across the landscape

Tree regeneration and recruitment will change

Forest productivity will increase during the next several decades in the absence of significant stressors

Surface water temperatures are expected to rise due to warming air temperatures

Inland lakes are warming, and continued warming will decrease seasonal mixing of stratified lakes and reduce available dissolved oxygen

Low streamflow events may become more frequent and deliver lower water volumes

Seasonal variation in soil moisture and altered precipitation may influence the magnitude and duration of flood events.

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