Forested watershed

Several modeling studies in other areas have shown that species with narrow geographic distributions, like many glade species, are more at-risk to climate change.

Pine forests can thrive on droughty, nutrient-poor sites. More frequent moisture stress or more extensive droughts could benefit red and white pine forests on mesic soils, but could impair stands on the driest sites. Moisture stress could favor jack pine or northern pin oak on already marginal red and white pine sites.

Although future distribution of these herbaceous species has not been modeled, many are adapted to the hot, dry conditions that are expected to become more common.

Models suggest an increase in fire risk by the end of the century due to increases in temperature and potential decreases in precipitation. If fires become more common, species in glades will likely benefit because they can tolerate fire better than more mesic species.

This community type develops on areas of exposed bedrock with very thin soils. Many species found in glades are more characteristic of areas south and west of the Central hardwoods region, which are much warmer and drier. All climate models agree conditions will become warmer, and dry conditions are possible in the summer or fall.

Under a high emissions scenario, researchers forecast more insect pest damage in northern forests due to increased metabolic activity in active periods and increased winter survival. Drought-stressed trees are also typically more vulnerable to insect pests and diseases. The possibility exists for new pests such as western bark beetles to arrive in the Upper Midwest.

This boreal species is already near its southern range limits in Michigan. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that jack pine is likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Red pine is also projected to decline in biomass and suitable habitat, particularly under hotter, drier climate scenarios. Overall, low species diversity gives this forest type few alternatives if conditions shift beyond tolerable limits

Jack pine has evolved to thrive with regular wildfire. Conditions that promote wildfires are generally projected to become more common by the end of the century. Greater wildfire activity could be positive for these forest types, but too much change to the fire regime might hamper regeneration and cause these forests to shift to barrens. The window of opportunity for applying prescribed fire to jack pine forests may shift under future climate change, but it is unclear if it would expand the potential to use fire as a management tool.

Jack pine forests can thrive on droughty, nutrient-poor sites. These traits may allow jack pine forests to tolerate a moderate amount of moisture stress and disturbance due to climate change. Under future drier conditions, this forest type may gain territory that is currently more mesic. Alternatively, the potential also exists for warmer temperatures to accelerate litter layer decomposition in these forests, leading to lower water-holding capacity and greater moisture stress. These conditions could prompt a shift to barrens systems in some locations.

Under a high emissions scenario, researchers forecast more insect pest damage in northern forests due to increased metabolic activity in active periods and increased winter survival. Drought-stressed trees are also typically more vulnerable to insect pests and diseases.