Midwest | Adaptation Workbook

This region was defined in the 4th National Climate Assessment and includes the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin.

State

Vulnerability Assessment

Fourth National Climate Assessment (2018) - Midwest

Climate Impact Statements

Temperatures in the Midwest are projected to increase by 5.6 to 9.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century (2071-2100).

The frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected to increase across the Midwest by the middle of the century (2036-2065).

The frequency and intensity of cold waves is expected to decrease across the Midwest by the middle of the century (2036-2065).

Drought risk is expected to increase across the Midwest by the end of the century.

Climate conditions will increase fire risks in in the Midwest by the end of the century.

Average annual precipitation is projected to increase slightly across the Midwest over the next century.

The frequency of intense precipitation will continue to increase across the Midwest under climate change.

A majority of climate models suggest that precipitation in the Midwest will increase in the winter, spring, and fall by the end of the century, but models generally project slight decreases in summer precipitation.

The annual frost-free season is expected to increase by roughly 30 days in the Midwest by the end of the century.

Climate change will amplify many existing stressors to forest ecosystems in the Midwest, such as invasive species, insect pests and pathogens, and disturbance regimes.

Boreal and northern tree species in the Midwest are generally expected to decline in suitable habitat under climate change, while temperate tree species, grasslands, savannas, and woodlands may expand by the end of the century.

Low-diversity systems are at greater risk from climate change.

Systems that are more tolerant of disturbance have less risk of declining on the landscape

Species in fragmented landscapes will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

Systems that are limited to particular environments will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the effects of increasing temperatures.

Impervious cover can exacerbate the effects of increased heavy precipitation events in urban areas.

Forest composition will change across the landscape

Tree regeneration and recruitment will change

Forest productivity will increase during the next several decades in the absence of significant stressors

Surface water temperatures are expected to rise due to warming air temperatures

Inland lakes are warming, and continued warming will decrease seasonal mixing of stratified lakes and reduce available dissolved oxygen

Seasonal variation in soil moisture and altered precipitation may influence the magnitude and duration of flood events.

Low streamflow events may become more frequent and deliver lower water volumes

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