Many northern and boreal tree species will face increasing stress across much of New England and northern New York.

Across northern latitudes, warmer temperatures are expected to be more favorable to individuals near the northern extent of their species’ range and less favorable to those near the southern extent.Results from climate impact models project a decline in suitable habitat and landscape-level biomass for northern species such as black spruce, red spruce, tamarack, and paper birch, as well as spruce-fir forest communities. These northern species may persist in the region throughout the 21st century, although with declining vigor. Boreal species may remain in areas with favorable soils, management, or landscape features. For example, climate refugia at high elevations or in other favorable microclimates may be buffered from some changes.