Southeast | Adaptation Workbook

This region was defined in the National Climate Assessment (2014) and includes the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia.

NIACS Unit

State

Vulnerability Assessment

National Climate Assessment (2018) - Southeast

Climate Impact Statements

Temperatures in the Southeast are projected to increase by 4.4 to 7.7 degrees Fahrenheit by late-century (2071-2100).

The Southeast is expected to experience between 5 and 30 more days per year with a maximum temperature exceeding 95 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century.

The Southeast is expected to experience between 0 and 14 fewer days per year with a minimum temperature below 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century.

Average annual precipitation is projected to increase slightly in the northeast portion of the Southeast, but may decrease in the southwest half of the region.

The number of days per year with more than 1 inch of precipitation will increase across the Southeast by the middle of the century, and double the number of heavy rainfall events are projected by late century.

A majority of climate models suggest that precipitation in the Southeast will increase in the winter, spring, and fall by the end of the century, but summer is generally expected to become drier.

The annual freeze-free season is expected to increase by 20 to 30 days in the Southeast by 2055. The freeze-free season lengthens by more than a month by the late 21st century in climate simulations based on a high emissions scenario.

Red spruce, balsam fir, and and eastern hemlock are projected to decline substantially across the Southeast by the end of the century, and conditions for pines may also deteriorate.

Climate change will amplify many existing stressors to forest ecosystems in the Southeast, such as invasive species and insect pests.

Widlfire risk is projected to increase across the Southeast by the end of the century.

Damage from hurricanes and sea-level rise is expected to increase in the Southeast by the end of the century.

Low-diversity systems are at greater risk from climate change.

Systems that are more tolerant of disturbance have less risk of declining on the landscape

Species in fragmented landscapes will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

Systems that are limited to particular environments will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the effects of increasing temperatures.

Impervious cover can exacerbate the effects of increased heavy precipitation events in urban areas.

Resource

Third National Climate Assessment – Southeast