Red pine is expected to decline across northern Michigan by the end of the century under a range of future scenarios.

This species is already near its southern range limits in Michigan. Multiple forest impact models tend to agree that red pine is likely to decline in suitable habitat and biomass across a range of climate scenarios by the end of the century. Red pine may be limited by warm temperatures, so projected warming may exceed the physiological limits of this species. Management has maintained red pine across much of the assessment area, and regeneration of this species usually relies on planted seedlings. Seasonal shifts in precipitation patterns, particularly the trend toward wetter springs and drier summers, may decrease the survival of planted seedlings.