Northern Great Plains | Adaptation Workbook

This region was defined in the National Climate Assessment (2014) and includes the states of Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming.

NIACS Unit

Crop

Range

Pasture

Agricultural facilities and infrastructure

Agricultural tree plantations

Associated agricultural lands

Non-agricultural rural developed land

Non-agricultural designated protected area

State

Vulnerability Assessment

National Climate Assessment (2018) - Northern Great Plains

Climate Impact Statements

Temperatures in the Northern Great Plains are projected to increase by 3.5 to 9.5 degrees Fahrenheit between the years 2036-2100.

By the middle of the century, the Northern Great Plains region is expected to experience between 5 and 45 more days per year with a maximum temperature exceeding 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

There are projected to be many fewer cool days (days with minimum temperatures less than 28°F), with decreases of 30 days or more per year by mid-century.

The incidence of wildfire has been on the rise in the Great Plains; changing climate conditions may increase wildfire risks in the region by the end of the century.

Precipitation in winter and spring is expected to increase 10%–30% by the end of this century. Summer precipitation is expected to vary, ranging from no change under a low emissions scenario to a 10%–20% reduction.

The number of days per year with more than 1 inch of precipitation will increase across the Northern Great Plains by the middle of the century.

A majority of climate models suggest that precipitation in the Northern Great Plains will increase in the winter, spring, and fall by the end of the century, but most models project that summer precipitation may decrease.

The freeze-free season is expected to increase by 15 to 33 days in the Northern Great Plains by the middle of the century.

Longer growing seasons, warmer temperatures, and greater water demand for agriculture may reduce available water for natural ecosystems.

Climate change will amplify many existing stressors to forests in the Great Plains, such as invasive species, insect pests and pathogens, and disturbance regimes.

Low-diversity systems are at greater risk from climate change.

Systems that are more tolerant of disturbance have less risk of declining on the landscape

Species in fragmented landscapes will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

Systems that are limited to particular environments will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the effects of increasing temperatures.

Impervious cover can exacerbate the effects of increased heavy precipitation events in urban areas.

Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe across the Northern Great Plains.

Resource

Third National Climate Assessment - Climate of the U.S. Great Plains, Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S.

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