Northern Minnesota | Adaptation Workbook

This region is defined by the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province (Ecological Province 212) in Minnesota.

NIACS Unit

Fire-Dependent Forest System

Mesic Hardwood Forest System

Floodplain Forest System

Wet Forest System

Forested Rich Peatland

Managed Red Pine

Multi-family residential

Commercial/ Industrial

Agricultural facilities and infrastructure

Agricultural tree plantations

Associated agricultural lands

Non-agricultural rural developed land

Non-agricultural designated protected area

Non-forested wetland

GeoJson

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Vulnerability Assessment

Minnesota forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis

Vulnerability Assessment Video

Video presentation: Climate Change Impacts on Northwoods Forests

Climate Impact Statements

Northern Minnesota temperatures will increase between 4 °F and 10 °F by the end of the century, with more warming during winter.

Northern Minnesota's winter snowpack will be reduced from 40-80% by the end of the century.

Northern Minnesota will have 20-40 fewer days of frozen ground during the winter by the end of the century.

Northern Minnesota's growing season will increase by 20 to 60 days by the end of the century.

Intense precipitation events will continue to become more frequent in northern Minnesota.

Northern Minnesota soil moisture patterns will change, with drier soil conditions later in the growing season.

Climate conditions will increase fire risks in northern Minnesota by the end of the century.

Many invasive species, insect pests, and pathogens in northern Minnesota forests will increase or become more damaging by the end of the century.

Northern Minnesota's boreal species will face increasing stress from climate change.

Southern or temperate species in northern Minnesota will be favored by climate change.

Northern Minnesota forest productivity will increase by the end of the century.

Low-diversity systems are at greater risk from climate change.

Species in fragmented landscapes will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

Systems that are limited to particular environments will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

Systems that are more tolerant of disturbance have less risk of declining on the landscape

The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the effects of increasing temperatures.

Impervious cover can exacerbate the effects of increased heavy precipitation events in urban areas.

Forest composition will change across the landscape

Tree regeneration and recruitment will change

Forest productivity will increase during the next several decades in the absence of significant stressors

Surface water temperatures are expected to rise due to warming air temperatures

Inland lakes are warming, and continued warming will decrease seasonal mixing of stratified lakes and reduce available dissolved oxygen

Low streamflow events may become more frequent and deliver lower water volumes

Seasonal variation in soil moisture and altered precipitation may influence the magnitude and duration of flood events.

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