Central Hardwoods | Adaptation Workbook

This area covers 42 million acres of southern Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana within Ecological Province 223 (Central Interior Broadleaf Forest) of the National Hierarchical Framework of Ecological Units. Provinces are broad geographic areas that share similar coarse features, such as climate, glacial history, and vegetation types, a mosaic of natural communities characterized by oak-hickory forests, woodlands and savannas.

NIACS Unit

Dry-mesic upland forest

Mesic upland forest

Mesic bottomland forest

Wet bottomland forest

Closed woodland

Barrens and savanna

Multi-family residential

Commercial/ Industrial

Agricultural facilities and infrastructure

Agricultural tree plantations

Associated agricultural lands

Non-agricultural rural developed land

Non-agricultural designated protected area

GeoJson

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Vulnerability Assessment

Central Hardwoods Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis

Climate Impact Statements

Central Hardwoods region temperatures will increase across all seasons between 2 °F and 7 °F by the end of the century.

Precipitation in the Central Hardwoods region is projected to increase in winter and spring by 2 to 5 inches for the two seasons combined.

Hydrologic model projections indicate that soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow may increase in the Central Hardwoods region during the spring as precipitation increases.

Snow in the Central Hardwoods region will decrease, with subsequent decreases in soil frost.

The Central Hardwoods region's growing season will increase by 20 to 70 days by the end of the century.

Intense precipitation events will continue to become more frequent in the Central Hardwoods region .

The Central Hardwoods region soil moisture patterns will change, with drier soil conditions later in the growing season .

Climate conditions will increase fire risks in the Central Hardwoods region by the end of the century

Many invasive species, insect pests, and pathogens in the Central Hardwoods region will increase or become more damaging.

Southern species in The Central Hardwoods region will be favored by climate change.

Suitable habitat for northern species in the Central Hardwoods region will decline.

The Central Hardwoods region's net forest productivity is not expected to change.

Low-diversity systems in the Central Hardwoods region are at greater risk from climate change.

Species in fragmented landscapes in the Central Hardwoods region will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.

Fire-adapted systems in the Central Hardwoods region will be more resilient to climate change

The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the effects of increasing temperatures.

Impervious cover can exacerbate the effects of increased heavy precipitation events in urban areas.

Forest composition will change across the landscape

Tree regeneration and recruitment will change

Forest productivity will increase during the next several decades in the absence of significant stressors

Surface water temperatures are expected to rise due to warming air temperatures

Inland lakes are warming, and continued warming will decrease seasonal mixing of stratified lakes and reduce available dissolved oxygen

Seasonal variation in soil moisture and altered precipitation may influence the magnitude and duration of flood events.

Low streamflow events may become more frequent and deliver lower water volumes

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